WA Property Outlook 2026: Supply is the Story

The latest data on WA housing completions should not be dismissed as a short-term fluctuation. It is a signal and a clear one.

Western Australia has now recorded a fourth consecutive quarterly decline in housing completions, with just 4,441 homes delivered in the December quarter. That is a fall of more than 25 per cent year-on-year. At the same time, the State is already thousands of homes behind its national housing accord target and, at the current pace, risks falling more than 20,000 homes short.

This is not simply a construction issue. It is a pricing story and a central driver of the Perth property market outlook for 2026.

Completions, Not Commencements, Drive Prices

There is a tendency to focus on rising construction commencements as a sign of improvement. Commencements in WA have lifted, and that is encouraging. But commencements do not house people, completions do.

Right now, we have a widening gap. More homes are being started while fewer homes are being finished. That gap matters. It delays supply reaching the market and extends the period of undersupply.

In practical terms, it means more buyers competing for fewer completed homes. That is the environment in which Perth house prices continue to rise.

A Structural, Not Cyclical, Housing Shortage in WA

The underlying constraints are not temporary. Persistent labour shortages, elevated construction costs, ongoing supply chain disruptions and increasing geopolitical pressures affecting materials are all contributing factors.

These are structural issues driving the WA housing shortage. They do not resolve in a quarter or two.

Even if commencements continue to rise, the lag between starting and finishing a home is now longer than it has been in years. That pushes meaningful supply relief further into the future.

What This Means for Perth Property Prices in 2026

Over the next 12 months, the direction is relatively clear.

Established housing remains the pressure valve. With new supply delayed, demand concentrates on existing homes. This is where the majority of Perth property price growth will continue to occur.

Price growth is likely to persist, not accelerate dramatically. Perth has already experienced strong gains. The next phase is less about rapid spikes and more about sustained upward pressure driven by scarcity.

Rental conditions will remain tight. A lack of completions means fewer dwellings entering both the sales and rental markets. That supports rents, which in turn supports property investment in Perth.

The market becomes more selective. Not all property rises equally. Well located, functional homes continue to outperform secondary stock.

The Key Risk: Policy vs Reality

Governments remain committed to ambitious housing targets. But targets do not build homes.

The current trajectory suggests a growing gap between policy intent and delivery capacity. Unless there is a meaningful improvement in construction productivity, and there is little evidence of that yet, the shortfall will persist.

The Bottom Line for the WA Property Market

The WA property market in 2026 will not be defined by interest rates alone. It will be defined by supply and more specifically, the lack of it.

Falling completions reinforce a simple dynamic.

Demand is steady. Supply is constrained. Prices adjust upward.

This is not a speculative cycle. It is a structural imbalance.

And until completions materially improve, that imbalance remains firmly in place.

About the Author

Andrew Huggins is Principal of Ray White Urban Springs, the top real estate agent in the City of Belmont for over 20 years. He writes about Perth property trends, WA real estate insights, Australian housing supply and demand, and long-term investment strategy.